Accurate prediction of surgery-duration is key to optimal utilization of operating theatres. Yet, current predictions, based on best available statistical and AI techniques, are highly inaccurate. This causes operating rooms worldwide to operate in a sub-optimal mode. Based on personal experience, supported by recently published three peer-reviewed articles, we believe that the poor state-of-the-art of current predictive methods for surgery-duration is traceable to a single cause. What is it? What is the remedy?
Literature
[1] Shore, H (1986). An approximation for the inverse distribution function of a combination of random variables, with an application to operating theatres. J. Statist. Com. Simul. 1986; 23:157-81. Available on Shore’s ResearchGate page.
[2] Shore, H (2020). An explanatory bi-variate model for surgery-duration and its empirical validation, Communications in Statistics: Case Studies, Data Analysis and Applications, 6:2, 142-166, DOI: 10.1080/23737484.2020.1740066 .
[3] Shore, H (2021a). SPC scheme to monitor surgery-duration. Qual Reliab Eng Int. 37: 1561– 1577. DOI: 10.1002/qre.2813 .
[4] Shore, H (2021b). Estimating operating room utilisation rate for differently distributed surgery times. International Journal of Production Research. DOI: 10.1080/00207543.2021.2009141
[5] Shore, H (2021c). “Predictive Methods for Surgery Duation”. Wikipedia. April 16, 2021.
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